Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about Almanis - our forecasting platform, community, data access, and regulatory approach. Built for transparency and clarity.
R&D What is Almanis R&D focused on?
Our research and development efforts concentrate on advancing the science of forecasting through:
- Behavioral analytics of market microstructure (price formation, forecast accuracy)
- Combinatorial prediction markets for complex, related questions
- Forecaster incentives and ethical, sustainable revenue models
- Asset mispricing under uncertain macro/geopolitical/financial events
Scope What are you forecasting today?
We focus on US macro and US-linked geopolitics. We also shadow Kalshi and Polymarket with superior hybrid forecasts that combine human judgment with machine learning capabilities.
Team Who's behind Almanis?
Almanis is built by the Dysrupt Labs team. Meet our team of forecasting technology experts and researchers.
Video Watch our 2-minute introduction
Learn about our forecasting platform and how we combine human expertise with machine learning to deliver superior predictions.
Join How do I join and how much can I earn?
Join our elite forecasting community through our rigorous selection process:
Apply → Interview → KYC/AML verification → Probation (2-6 months) → Invitation to Almanis
- Top macro & geopolitical forecasters: GBP 5-figure annual earnings
- Top corporate forecasters: GBP 6-figure annual earnings
- Privacy protection: Your identity remains confidential at all times
Incentives What motivates Almanis forecasters?
Financial rewards for accuracy, combined with the competitive drive to rank against the world's best forecasters. Our top performers earn substantial rewards while contributing to cutting-edge forecasting research.
Horizon How far out are forecasts accurate?
Almanis performs strongly within 100 days, with optimal accuracy inside 15 days to event. Our machine learning signals typically lead crowd forecasts by 10-14 days.
Signals What time-series do you publish?
We provide two complementary streams per question:
- Crowd prediction market: Aggregated human judgment from our expert forecasters
- Machine learning signal: AI-enhanced forecasting algorithms
- Optional microstructure dataset: Detailed market dynamics with 90-day analyst support
Access Can I license raw market data?
Yes. We provide raw data feeds and comprehensive documentation for enterprise users. Contact us for custom data solutions and API access.
Timing When should users act on a forecast?
Optimal windows are question-specific. Earlier access yields greater strategic flexibility. On average, ML signals lead crowd forecasts by 10-14 days, providing valuable lead time for decision-making.
Model Are you a gambling or securities exchange?
No. Almanis operates as a publisher and new-generation prediction market using points, not cash. Forecasting is free for participants, who can earn rewards for accuracy and speed. See our Terms of Service for complete details.
Compliance Are you regulated & how do you cooperate?
Almanis is not a regulated financial exchange. We maintain strict compliance through:
- Full cooperation with KYC, AML, IRS & equity-related requests
- Strict platform conduct enforcement
- Comprehensive monitoring and oversight
See our Terms and Privacy Policy.
Insider How do you avoid insider trading?
We maintain market integrity through:
- 24/7 monitoring of all platform activity
- Enhanced screening for equity forecasters
- Full cooperation with regulatory inquiries
- Strict enforcement of platform rules
Privacy What's your privacy stance?
Privacy is fundamental to our platform. Identity and personal data of forecasters, users, and clients are never shared except as required by law. Privacy safeguards both performance and integrity. See our Privacy Policy.
Clients Who are your customers?
Client information is confidential. NDAs cover all relationships to protect privacy and maintain competitive advantage.
Competition Who do you compete with?
For prediction markets: We outperform polls, surveys, and traditional prediction markets. We benchmark and arbitrage against Kalshi and Polymarket.
For ML forecast accuracy: We have no direct competitor in speed and accuracy.
Trading If the data is good, why not trade it all in-house?
We trade US ETFs and FX pairs for system testing only. Our business model focuses on licensing (IP/AUM/alpha revenue share) rather than proprietary trading.
Scale Is a crowd of ~800+ enough?
Yes. Over nine years, we've consistently delivered strong results with expert crowds far smaller than typical polls or surveys. Quality and expertise matter more than quantity.