Hybrid Forecasting Intelligence
Hybrid human-machine forecasting for institutional investors
We are a team of 12 researchers passionate about forecasting. Over 15 years, we've developed prediction market systems that combine expert human judgment with machine learning validation, with our approach independently validated through government research programs and peer-reviewed academic publications.
We operate Almanis, our private prediction market in geopolitical and election forecasting. This is driven by a private panel of 900 forecasters around the globe in a highly automated system operating at scale with Four 9s efficiency since 2015. Recent epidemic research forecasting has evolved into a systematic approach for identifying when market consensus is likely to be wrong on key macroeconomic variables.
As a private intelligence firm serving institutional clients, we maintain a deliberately low public profile. Our business operates through direct relationships rather than digital marketing, ensuring confidentiality for both our forecaster network and institutional partners.
Independent Validation
- DARPA NGS2 Program: Methodology successfully replicated using out-of-sample datasets
- eBioMedicine (The Lancet): ML-augmentation framework peer-reviewed and published
- Journal of Financial Markets: Core forecasting methodology published
- Institutional Trials: Previous trials with major hedge funds informed our current systematic approach to signal generation
- 15-Year Track Record: Operational history across multiple forecasting domains
- 900+ Expert Network: Maintained across 15+ countries with dedicated relationship management
Live Macro Signals: December 2025
We are launching live macro divergence signals this December, providing real-time validation of our methodology's commercial application to US macroeconomic forecasting.
Leadership
Karl Mattingly, Founder & CEO: 25-year ANZ Bank career in senior risk and international banking, followed by 17 years developing classified and commercial intelligence systems. MBA Columbia University.
Prof. Anne-Louise Ponsonby, Chief Scientist: Principal Investigator at University of Melbourne and The Florey Institute. Leading scientific validation and academic collaboration efforts.
Stephen Markscheid, Founder & Director: 35+ years international experience at Boston Consulting Group and General Electric. MBA Columbia, MA Johns Hopkins SAIS.
Institutional Conversations
We work with sophisticated institutional investors who understand the value of alternative intelligence sources. Our approach to client relationships is built on transparency, scientific rigor, and operational excellence.